Ukraine 9-6-2014

6, September 2014                             Ukraine

The ceasefire comes at a time when the Ukrainian military has suffered a number of humiliating defeats at the hands of the Russian-backed rebels. 2,600 people have been killed and over one million displaced. Tim Judah of the New York of Books reports of the utter devastation in southeastern Ukraine and the large number of children rendered homeless (50,000 to 70,000). It bears an eerie resemblance to Gaza. The Ukrainian army is fleeing leaving behind much of their heavy equipment and it’s likely that the important city of Mariupol may be lost if the fighting continues. The big bad wolf, Putin, is now in a much stronger position to negotiate on his terms.

The pro-war hawkish government, the three Baltic States, Poland and Romania, are at odds with the more dovish governments – the Germans, the French and Spanish who want to maintain the trade relationship with Russia. There is little doubt that both the United States and Russia have contributed to the destabilization of Ukraine. The root cause of the conflict was precipitated by the overthrow of an elected pro-Russian president and our ill-advised messianic zeal to align Ukraine with Europe and NATO. What makes the situation even worse is government steps being taken to dismantle the pillars of democracy with arbitrary arrests, censorship and banning the Communist party. If Russia is pushed too far they may respond with short-range tactical nuclear weapons which will draw the US and Europe into another world war.